China-Ukraine Education Union

China to replace Russia as Kazakhstan's main trading partner

Recently, the deputy prime minister of the Kazakh government, Serik Jumangalin, said that the Russo-Ukrainian war is "reshaping" trade between Central Asia and Kazakhstan. By 2030, Kazakhstan's trade with China will exceed its trade with Russia and 27 EU countries.
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In the 30 years of Kazakhstan's independence, Russia has been Kazakhstan's largest trading partner, although the trade volume with China has grown every year. However, Russian sanctions on Kazakhstan have opened up new trade opportunities for China. Deputy Prime Minister said, Kazakhstan's eastern neighbor China will catch up with Russia in a few years.Kazakhstan’s trade with China rose by about a third last year, to nearly $24 billion. At the same time, Kazakhstan's trade volume with China is only $2 billion less than with Russia. When meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, President of Kazakhstan Tokayev said that the trade volume between Kazakhstan and China will increase to 40 billion US dollars in the future.

Kazakhstan's trade with its northern neighbor Russia increased by 10% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2023. According to the Deputy Prime Minister, this is because the indirect impact of the sanctions forced Kazakhstan to adjust and significantly increased the export of goods to Russia. In the first half of 2022, the supply of high-tech products to Russia will increase from $15 million to $184 million. In this regard, Kazakhstan is closely watched by the governments of the United States and the European Union to facilitate supply constraints on traded goods.

The deputy prime minister noted that the flow of goods through Russia has become more difficult and some sanctioned companies can no longer buy raw materials from Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan is considering trading with China, Iran, India and Persian Gulf countries via the Caspian Sea due to shrinking trade volumes with Russia. However, "the direction of China is the top priority."

Haval, a sub-brand of China's Great Wall Motor, has begun assembling cars in Kazakhstan, and Chery and other auto brands are also planning to enter Kazakhstan in the near future. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan has started supplying grain to China and is negotiating meat exports. The deputy prime minister said that another railway hub connecting Kazakhstan and China is planned.

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